Things are really getting interesting this summer with the GOP race.
With McCain’s plumetting financial circumstances and a decrease in poll numbers, some are saying that he could be out of the race by September. It seems to me this indicates a lack of interest in his campaign. I also believe that it’s not just a coincidence that this situation comes on heels of the failed immigration bill he co-sponsored with Ted Kennedy. It’s almost sad considering that an 2012 or 2016 run is most likely out of the question for him.
Giuliani’s poll numbers seem stable and his fundraising is the highest of the field. He still remains the general front-runner nationwide. That may change soon considering that he’s got Fred Thompson nipping at his heels in the national polls.
As far as Fred Thompson goes, he still remains undeclared, despite rising poll numbers and increasing interest by potential voters and supporters. He also failed to declare on July 4th, as was the rumor. If he does not declare by the end of this weekend, I know that I’ll personally be disappointed in him. Strike while the iron is hot, Fred. It’s now or never.
Mitt Romney placed second in fundraising during the second quarter. His national poll numbers are steady, even though he needs them to be rising. However, he’s on top in New Hampshire and Iowa, the first two primary states. His television advertising is unrivaled in both states. His plan is to win these early primary states and use the momentum to carry him through to the nomination. Personally I think he’s got the best plan of any candidate in the race. As a result, I see him winning the nomination by the end of February.
I can’t help but congratulate Ron Paul on defeating McCain in fundraising this quarter. Even though his poll numbers are near the bottom, he’s showing extremely strong support in the Internet community, as evidenced by the large response to my blogs on him. Quite frankly, I respect Dr. Paul. On the issues, he ranks rather high on my list. It’s just too bad he still will not win this nomination.
I like Mike Huckabee. But the guy’s just not really getting anywhere in this race. I hate that for him. However, I urge him to stick with it. Keep yourself in the spotlight, Mike. Perhaps your time will come.
Sam Brownback should stay a Senator and remain on the national scene. He’s a good man and a fine Republican, but it’s too early for him.
As far as Jim Gilmore, Tim Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, and Duncan Hunter, they have virtually no relevance in this race. Tancredo is not presidential in the least. Gilmore’s mannerisms remind me of Clinton with far less personality. No one really takes Thompson seriously. Duncan Hunter is a valuable asset in California and I appreciate his stance on immigration, but he’s going nowhere in this election.
Realistically, I think the race is now between Romney, Giuliani and Fred Thompson (if he ever declares). I’ll say this, Ron Paul may put up a fight and place within the top 5, but the odds of him actually winning are quite slim.
At this point, I think it’s extremely reasonable to predict that Romney will eventually win this race. He’s on the right track by gaining support in key states early on and I think he’ll prevail. At any rate, the conservative base must rally behind whoever the nominee is. In Romney’s case, it’s unreasonable to withold support for him based on his religion. With Giuliani, he’s infinitely better than Clinton or Obama, regardless of his pro-choice stance. Fred Thompson seems to have few negative features and I don’t foresee him having too much trouble should he win the nomination.
Regardless of our differences within the conservative community, we must back the candidate of the Republican party or suffer the consequences of a Democratic White House, House of Representatives, and Senate.