Observations on the Status of the GOP Presidential Race

Things are really getting interesting this summer with the GOP race.

With McCain’s plumetting financial circumstances and a decrease in poll numbers, some are saying that he could be out of the race by September. It seems to me this indicates a lack of interest in his campaign. I also believe that it’s not just a coincidence that this situation comes on heels of the failed immigration bill he co-sponsored with Ted Kennedy. It’s almost sad considering that an 2012 or 2016 run is most likely out of the question for him.

Giuliani’s poll numbers seem stable and his fundraising is the highest of the field. He still remains the general front-runner nationwide.  That may change soon considering that he’s got Fred Thompson nipping at his heels in the national polls.

As far as Fred Thompson goes, he still remains undeclared, despite rising poll numbers and increasing interest by potential voters and supporters. He also failed to declare on July 4th, as was the rumor. If he does not declare by the end of this weekend, I know that I’ll personally be disappointed in him. Strike while the iron is hot, Fred. It’s now or never.

Mitt Romney placed second in fundraising during the second quarter. His national poll numbers are steady, even though he needs them to be rising. However, he’s on top in New Hampshire and Iowa, the first two primary states. His television advertising is unrivaled in both states. His plan is to win these early primary states and use the momentum to carry him through to the nomination. Personally I think he’s got the best plan of any candidate in the race. As a result, I see him winning the nomination by the end of February.  

I can’t help but congratulate Ron Paul on defeating McCain in fundraising this quarter. Even though his poll numbers are near the bottom, he’s showing extremely strong support in the Internet community, as evidenced by the large response to my blogs on him. Quite frankly, I respect Dr. Paul. On the issues, he ranks rather high on my list. It’s just too bad he still will not win this nomination.

I like Mike Huckabee. But the guy’s just not really getting anywhere in this race. I hate that for him. However, I urge him to stick with it. Keep yourself in the spotlight, Mike. Perhaps your time will come.

Sam Brownback should stay a Senator and remain on the national scene.  He’s a good man and a fine Republican, but it’s too early for him.

As far as Jim Gilmore, Tim Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, and Duncan Hunter, they have virtually no relevance in this race. Tancredo is not presidential in the least. Gilmore’s mannerisms remind me of Clinton with far less personality. No one really takes Thompson seriously. Duncan Hunter is a valuable asset in California and I appreciate his stance on immigration, but he’s going nowhere in this election.

Realistically, I think the race is now between Romney, Giuliani and Fred Thompson (if he ever declares). I’ll say this, Ron Paul may put up a fight and place within the top 5, but the odds of him actually winning are quite slim. 

At this point, I think it’s extremely reasonable to predict that Romney will eventually win this race. He’s on the right track by gaining support in key states early on and I think he’ll prevail. At any rate, the conservative base must rally behind whoever the nominee is. In Romney’s case, it’s unreasonable to withold support for him based on his religion. With Giuliani, he’s infinitely better than Clinton or Obama, regardless of his pro-choice stance. Fred Thompson seems to have few negative features and I don’t foresee him having too much trouble should he win the nomination.

Regardless of our differences within the conservative community, we must back the candidate of the Republican party or suffer the consequences of a Democratic White House, House of Representatives, and Senate.

12 Responses to Observations on the Status of the GOP Presidential Race

  1. mdvp says:

    Fred ’08! I like Tancredo, though, I agree with him the most out of all of them according to a quiz I took. Also like Duncan Hunter and Brownback. Brownback does need to do a bit more work but I forsee him as a possible 2012 or 2016 candidate if He’s still prepared to be in it (he’s not getting younger, though). I don’t like Paul. I just don’t. Realistically in terms of ability to win, Fred and Newt are my favorites. Newt won’t get in once Fred is, but a Thompson/Gingrich run in the general election is very appealing to me.

  2. Braden says:

    I hope and pray that Newt Gingrich stays out of this election. Fred’s getting on my nerves by delaying his official announcement. I’d feel comfortable supporting him should he win the nomination, but I plan to vote for Romney unless something unexpected happens.

  3. mdvp says:

    Romney’s not my type of guy. Newt won’t get in, I think, because he cares too much about what he believes in to split the vote and lose it like that. But I could be wrong.

  4. bek says:

    Perhaps the reason that some of the really important campaigns, like that of Duncan Hunter, are “not going anywhere” is because the evangelical community has abdicated their power. Where are the Christians that are willing to take a stand politically?

    I cannot believe that you discount the “true conservative” candidates. Anne Coulter is right about Duncan Hunter–he is magnificent–and he should be the only choice for conservatives.

  5. Braden says:

    It’s not necessarily me that’s discounting the candidates you speak of. They’ve already been discounted and I’m pointing that out. I like Duncan Hunter, as I indicated in my post. But he’s got less of a shot at winning than Ron Paul. I’m a Christian that’s taking a stand politically. A lot of these “evangelicals” are just waiting until the candidate is nominated. I think that’s unfortunate, just as you do. But evangelicals on the whole are petty and fickle, and that doesn’t serve them well.

  6. practicalreasoning says:

    I think most Evangelicals are like any other voter – they want the best candidate to win. The best candidate isn’t always the most conservative or the most Christian. This is why Hunter, Huckabee, and the rest of the 7 dwarfs have never caught on.

    Newt’s missed his chance. Besides, too much baggage.

    I would agree with Braden that certainly the most competent candidate in the field is Romney. Unlike most candidates, the guy talks in specifics and has the background to completely revamp the federal government. He’s certainly the candidate of change.

    I like Fred – but he hasn’t given us an agenda. I also think he’d get clobbered in the general election. Think about it – folksy southern accent, ties with lobbyists, thin resume. Hillary/Obama will have a field day painting him as Bush 3.0 – at a time when the nation is suffering from severe Bush fatigue.

    You want a change, go with Romney.

    Oh, and I like the blog. Thanks for visiting mine.

  7. Blake says:

    Romney is the best candidate out there, hands down. His only problem is that people misunderstand his religion. The reason he’s leading in the early primary states is because that is where he has spent his money in advertising. That is where people have come to see him for who he is. When the rest of the nation has the chance to learn about who he is, what his qualifications are, what his plans are, and can see how well he responds to questions and handles himself, they, too, will put in their support.

  8. C Bowen says:

    I’m not sure ‘evangelicals’ can be taken that seriously anymore precisely because they are revealing their Leftist heritage in coming up with reasons to support Guiliani.

    Hunter is pure B-1 Bob Dornan redux. Nobody takes him seriously, but he serves a purpose to throw red meat to certain constituencies and deliver them to whomever the Establishment goes with.

    Fred has some skeletons, including representing a pro-abortion lobby and I don’t see how that sort of record will allow him to pull away even though as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, he’ll have the insider support.

    Romney has organization and should be able to hang in there but take away his $9 million loan to himself, and he has only $3 million in cash which is pretty anemic considering Paul’s haul.

    On the other hand, Romney continually demonstrates he is not ready for prime time and hasn’t even attempted beyond the slightest gesture, to appeal to the paleocon and paleolibertarian factions that are gravitating towards Tancredo and more pronounced, Ron Paul.

    I think we are looking at the ‘war vote’ being split state by state by the pro-war factions with Paul consistently finishing in the top 3. Should he win enough delegates to force an invite to the convention it will get interesting.

  9. Braden says:

    Fred has denied the the pro-abortion thing, which doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not true but I just don’t think that mud will stick on him. Last I heard Romney had only donated $6 million to himself and he was at $14-15 million before that in fundraising in the second quarter. I think Romney is exceptionally ready for prime time with his calm demeanor and articulate eloquence. I don’t think the paleocons and paleolibertarians are the ones that will carry the nominee. However, I do think Ron Paul and his constituency will make a statement to all conservatives regardless of his failure to win the nomination.

  10. C Bowen says:

    I read Romney donated $6.5 million this quarter, on top of the $2.3 million he loaned his campaign last year, for a total of $8.8 million.

    Romeny passes on signing the American Freedom Agenda pledge which is run by some disaffected Beltway Conservatives and would have been an excellent time to put some distance between himself and the DC regime and run as an outsider with very little risk.

    He could, perhaps, do some out reach with The American Conservative, particularly now that the Beltway will win or lose (what do they really care) with Fred Thompson.

    Fred denied the ‘lobby’ part but that is parsing words. Sure, his billing records will be sealed in a room with the ark from Raiders and the Rose Law Firm records, but considering he is also Council on Foreign Relations, my point is I don’t see how he could pull away.

  11. golf1585 says:

    You know I am going to respectfully disagree with you about Romney having all the momentum. All the national polls I have seen from the last month show Romney having less than 11 percent of support from the Republican base, that is even less than McCain, who can’t raise 5 dollars for his campaign! Yes, he is ahead in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, but those are the only two states he has any kind of significant showing of support. And furthermore, I think that if he were to get a closer race than anticipated in either of these two states, it will actually backfire on his campaign!

  12. Braden says:

    You will soon be corrected, sir.

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